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Tag Archives: Economy

Federal Reserve cuts key rate as government shutdown clouds economic outlook

Federal Reserve cuts key rate as government shutdown clouds economic outlook

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring even as inflation stays elevated.

“Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August,” the Fed said in a statement issued Wednesday. “More recent indicators are consistent with these developments.” The government hasn’t issued unemployment data after August because of the shutdown. The Fed is watching private-sector figures instead.

Wednesday’s decision brings the Fed’s key rate down to about 3.9%, from about 4.1%. The central bank had cranked its rate to roughly 5.3% in 2023 and 2024 to combat the biggest inflation spike in four decades. Lower rates could, over time, reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, as well as for business loans.

The move comes amid a fraught time for the central bank, with hiring sluggish and yet inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Compounding its challenges, the central bank is navigating without the economic signposts it typically relies on from the government, including monthly reports on jobs, inflation and consumer spending, which have been suspended because of the government shutdown. The Fed has signaled it may reduce its key rate again in December but the data drought raises the uncertainty around its next moves.

The Fed typically raises its short term rate to combat inflation, while it cuts rates to encourage borrowing and spending and shore up hiring. Right now its two goals are in conflict, so it is reducing borrowing costs to support the job market, while still keeping rates high enough to avoid stimulating the economy so much that it worsens inflation.

Speaking to reporters after the Fed’s announced its rate decision, Fed chair Jerome Powell said there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed in December” at the policy meeting and a further reduction in rates is not “a foregone conclusion.”

On Wednesday, the Fed also said it would stop reducing the size of its massive securities holdings, which it accumulated during the pandemic and after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. The change, to take effect Dec. 1, could over time slightly reduce longer-term interest rates on things like mortgages but won’t have much impact on consumer borrowing costs.

The Fed purchased nearly $5 trillion of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds from 2020 to 2022 to stabilize financial markets during the pandemic and keep longer-term interest rates low. The bond-buying lifted its securities holdings to $9 trillion.

In the past three years, however, the Fed has reduced its holdings to about $6.6 trillion. To shrink its holdings, the Fed lets securities mature without replacing them, reducing bank reserves. In recent months, however, the reductions appeared to disrupt money markets, threatening to push up shorter-term interest rates.

Two of the 12 officials who vote on the Fed’s rate decisions dissented, but in different directions. Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented for the second straight meeting in favor of a half-point cut. Miran was appointed by President Donald Trump just before the central bank’s last meeting in September.

Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, voted against the move because he preferred no change to the Fed’s rate. Schmid has previously expressed concern that inflation remains too high.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell for not reducing borrowing costs more quickly. In South Korea early Wednesday he repeated his criticisms of the Fed chair.

“He’s out of there in another couple of months,” Trump said. Powell’s term ends in May. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration is considering five people to replace Powell, and will decide by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, the government shutdown has interrupted economic data. September’s jobs report, scheduled to be released three weeks ago, is still postponed. This month’s hiring figures, to be released Nov. 7, will likely be delayed and may be less comprehensive when they are finally released. And the White House said last week that October’s inflation report may never be issued at all.

The data drought raises risks for the Fed because it is widely expected to keep cutting rates in an effort to shore up growth and hiring. Yet should job gains pick up soon, the Fed may not detect the change. And if hiring rebounds after weak job gains during the summer, further rate cuts may not be justified.

Before the government shutdown cut off the flow of data Oct. 1, monthly hiring gains had weakened to an average of just 29,000 a month for the previous three months, according to the Labor Department’s data. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

More recently, several large corporations have announced sweeping layoffs, including UPS, Amazon, and Target, which threatens to boost the unemployment rate if it continues.

Meanwhile, last week’s inflation report — released more than a week late because of the shutdown — showed that inflation remains elevated but isn’t accelerating and may not need higher interest rates to tame it.

The government’s first report on the economy’s growth in the July-September quarter was scheduled to be published on Thursday, but will be delayed, as will Friday’s report on consumer spending that also includes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Fed officials say they are monitoring a range of other data, including some issued by the private sector, and don’t feel handicapped by the lack of government reports.

Wall Street gets back to rising as gold keeps setting records

Wall Street gets back to rising as gold keeps setting records

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street is getting back to rising. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% Wednesday and is on track to top its all-time high, a day after breaking a seven-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.9%. Stocks benefiting from the artificial-intelligence boom continue to pull the market higher following a nearly relentless rise since April. Gold continued its stellar year and pushed further past $4,000 per ounce. Treasury yields eased in the bond market, while stock indexes rose in Europe following a weaker finish in Asia.… Continue Reading

Wall Street ticks to more records, led by technology stocks

Wall Street ticks to more records, led by technology stocks

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks edged up to more records. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.4%. All three set all-time highs. Technology stocks helped lead the way after OpenAI announced partnerships with South Korean companies for its Stargate artificial-intelligence infrastructure project. Fair Isaac surged to its best day in nearly three years after unveiling a program where customers can potentially bypass big credit bureaus for FICO credit scores. Stock indexes also rose across much of Europe and Asia, while Treasury yields eased in the bond market.… Continue Reading

US hiring stalls with employers reluctant to expand in an economy grown increasingly erratic

US hiring stalls with employers reluctant to expand in an economy grown increasingly erratic

WASHINGTON (AP) — The American job market, a pillar of U.S. economic strength since the pandemic, is crumbling under the weight of President Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies. Uncertain about where things are headed, companies are reluctant to hire, leaving agonized jobseekers unable to find work and worrying the consumers (70% of U.S. economic activity) whose spending has driven impressive growth for the world’s biggest economy since the COVID-19 disruptions of 2020. The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers — companies, government agencies and nonprofits — added just 22,000 jobs last month, down from a 79,000 in July and well below the 80,000 that economists had expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% last month, the highest since 2021.… Continue Reading

US stocks rally to records on hopes for cuts to interest rates

US stocks rally to records on hopes for cuts to interest rates

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market rallied to records after data suggested inflation across the country was a touch better last month than economists expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% Tuesday and topped its all-time high set two weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483 points, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4% to set its own record. Stocks got a lift from hopes that the better-than-expected inflation report will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. Lower rates can give the economy and investment prices a boost.… Continue Reading

US inflation held steady last month as tariff hit offset by cheaper gas, food

US inflation held steady last month as tariff hit offset by cheaper gas, food

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation was unchanged in July as rising prices for some imported goods were balanced by falling gas and grocery prices, leaving overall prices modestly higher than a year ago. The figures suggest that slowing rent increases and cheaper gas are offsetting some impacts of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Many businesses are also absorbing much of the cost of the duties. Tuesday’s figures likely include some impact from the 10% universal tariff Trump imposed in April, as well as higher duties on countries such as China and Canada.… Continue Reading

Walden: N.C. economy still strong despite national slowdown

Walden: N.C. economy still strong despite national slowdown

RALEIGH, N.C. (WPTF) — While the national economy shows signs of slowing, North Carolina remains in good shape, according to N.C. State University Economist Emeritus Dr. Mike Walden. Walden, the guest on this week’s Carolina Newsmakers, said tracking the effectiveness of tariffs is challenging and most economists did not expect the U.S. to be in its current position. He noted that President Donald Trump’s administration has taken a new approach to trade policy.… Continue Reading

Wall Street clocks another winning week

Wall Street clocks another winning week

Stocks rose on Wall Street, marking their third winning week in the last four. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% Friday, leaving the index just shy of the record it set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite added 1% to the record it set a day earlier. Expedia and Gilead Sciences rose sharply after reporting results that easily beat analysts’ forecasts. Both companies also raised their outlooks. Asian markets closed mostly lower except in Tokyo, where the Nikkei rose 1.9%. European markets were mixed. Treasury yields rose in the bond market.… Continue Reading

US stocks set more records as Verizon begins a big week for profit reports with a beat

US stocks set more records as Verizon begins a big week for profit reports with a beat

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are rising toward more records ahead of a week full of profit updates from big U.S. companies. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% Monday and was above its all-time high set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 217 points, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.7% to its own record. Verizon Communications helped lead the way following its better-than-expected profit report. Other market heavyweights slated to report their results for the spring this week include Alphabet, Coca-Cola and Tesla. Stock indexes were mixed in Europe but rose in much of Asia, while Treasury yields eased in the bond market.… Continue Reading

Americans increased spending tepidly last month as anxiety over the economy takes hold

Americans increased spending tepidly last month as anxiety over the economy takes hold

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. shoppers stepped up their spending just a bit in February after a sharp pullback the previous month, signaling that Americans are shopping more cautiously as concerns about the direction of the economy mount. Retail sales rose just 0.2% in February, a small rebound after a sharp drop of 1.2% in January, the Commerce Department said Monday. Sales rose at grocery stores, home and garden stores, and online retailers. Sales fell at auto dealers, restaurants, and electronics stores. The small increase suggests Americans may be growing more wary about spending as the stock market has plunged and President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and government spending cuts have led to widespread uncertainty among consumers and businesses.… Continue Reading

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